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Date Published 11 September 2019

More positive signs for post-Brexit property market recovery

Brexit is weighing heavily on sentiment and house prices and so it's hard to see positive indicators for the market going forward. However, there are a lot of very strong indicators for price increases once Brexit is resolved making it a great time to get your foot on the ladder or upsize.

July had the highest number of monthly mortgage approvals since 2009, at 95,126 mortgages. This was a 16.4% increase in the number of home purchase mortgages from the previous year.

June also showed average wage inflation increase to 3.9%, again the highest level for a number of years. Core inflation is around the 2% mark and 10-year fixed rate mortgages can be found at an incredibly low 2.2%. This is extremely positive for house prices.

Therefore availability of credit is increasing and affordability is rapidly improving. Anyone that has been kind enough to pay attention to my blogs over the last few years will be familiar with the 18 year house price model and how I was arguing, in 2016, that we would be entering a short house price recession followed by, according to a model that has remained true over 300 years, a roughly 7 year period of rapid price gains.

Certainly, as an owner of a mortgage advisory business and an estate and lettings agency, we are seeing lots of savvy first time buyers and upsizers taking advantage and I expect those that make the move now won't regret it. I must, of course, add that my thoughts are my own and not intended as investment advice, and the usual health warnings with anything money related, but post Brexit, the following few months could be quite interesting.

Paul Davies

Director of At Home Estate and Lettings Agency and About Mortgages Ltd.
01403 886288